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Last week I gave you some of my favorite Over season win totals in college football, and now I bring you some Unders that I’m hammering now.
Usually, I study spring scrimmage performances, take into account what teams lost stars to the NFL and consider upcoming schedules to determine if I want to throw some money down on teams.
I take a look at how I think Deion Sanders’ Colorado squad, Nick Saban’s powerhouse Crimson Tide team and a new era starting at Stanford will fare this season.
Let’s dive into my picks.
I’m fading the Colorado hype and taking the season win total Under 3.5 in the Over/Under.
The Buffaloes were 1-11 last season and, outside their 20-13 overtime win against Cal, they did not keep any game close. They had one of the worst rosters in the sport.
When Deion Sanders was hired in December, he promised roster overhaul and the Colorado staff delivered on their promise. The Buffaloes have had 71 players transfer during the 2022-23 transfer portal cycle, with 47 of those players entering the portal just this spring.
To fill those roster spots, Deion brought in a high school recruiting class and a whole roster of portal players, including his son Shedeur at quarterback and Travis Hunter, an elite football talent from Jackson State.
A quick glance at their depth chart, which is ever-evolving and not set in stone, shows only four players in the starting 22 who were on the roster last season. That’s a whole bunch of new talent and new personalities to pair with a new staff. It’s never been done on this scale before.
Deion Sanders brings record-breaking numbers for spring game
Joel Klatt talked about Deion Sanders and the Colorado Buffaloes selling out their first spring game.
Colorado fans will point to USC’s 2022 season as a blueprint for success. USC was 4-8 in 2021 after firing Clay Helton early in the season. USC hired Lincoln Riley from Oklahoma, used the portal to improve the roster and went 11-3 in Riley’s first season in Los Angeles.
However, there are differences between USC’s rebuild and Colorado’s. For starters, Riley took his Sooners to three College Football Playoff appearances. He’s an established Power 5 coach. Deion is not.
I have high hopes for Deion. He was excellent at Jackson State, but he’s not coached at this level. The Pac-12 Conference is loaded with outstanding coaches and quarterbacks this season, making Colorado’s quick ascent tougher.
Secondly, USC’s transfer portal additions were Caleb Williams, the eventual Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback. USC brought in Travis Dye, who led the Pac-12 in all-purpose yards the previous season. USC snagged 2021 Biletnikoff Award winner Jordan Addison from Pitt and Mario Williams from Oklahoma to catch passes.
Third, USC had the foundation of their Joe Moore Award semifinalist offensive line and their best pass rusher already on the roster (Tuli Tuipulotu) when Riley got there.
Colorado has needed the portal to find three of five offensive linemen and their entire defensive line. I need to see it all come together before I believe in the hype.
Colorado’s schedule in 2023 is also far different than USC’s schedule in 2022. USC played three ranked teams last season, with Oregon State being a fourth who was ranked by the end of the season. As it stands, Colorado will face at least six ranked teams.
A quick glance at their schedule shows two games Colorado will be the favorite — a Week 3 home matchup against Colorado State, then a game against the Stanford Cardinal four weeks later. Colorado has winnable games against both Arizona schools, but those are 50-50 games.
Other than those four games, Colorado will need to pull major upsets to win. They start at TCU, then host Nebraska and Colorado State. A trip to Oregon followed by USC in Boulder could have them start 1-4. Colorado also has trips to UCLA, Washington State and Utah on the schedule. Oregon State is the Buffaloes homecoming game.
It’s a tough schedule for a new roster in a conference that could see five teams win 10 games again. There’s a reason Vegas has set their win total at 3.5. I’m taking the Under.
Yes, I’m doing it. I’m fading the Tide this season.
After years of championships, the Tide looked the most vulnerable last season since Nick Saban’s first season in 2007. Alabama had three wins by six points or fewer, plus losses to Tennessee and LSU.
Alabama has had a talent drain after all the years of sending everyone to the NFL, and the quarterback options for 2023 do not inspire confidence. The Tide’s offensive line has taken a step back and while they still have among the best skill talent in the country, they’re just not as good.
Defensively, Alabama had its worst season in quite a while when facing competent offenses. Again, Alabama isn’t a bum team now, but it just isn’t as good as previous seasons. The Tide play in the toughest conference in the country and once again, the team has questions at quarterback.
I’m taking the Under.
Stanford: Under 3 wins
This is one wager where my knowledge and wagering success with the Pac-12 Conference will need to be trusted.
Stanford was 3-9 last season with five players drafted, including the team’s quarterback and two defensive backs. Stanford was 1-8 in conference, with just one conference loss by fewer than seven points.
It was Stanford’s third straight full season having four wins or fewer (2020 COVID year not included), which prompted longtime coach David Shaw to resign.
Stanford hired Sacramento State’s Troy Taylor, a three-time Big Sky Conference champion. Taylor was an outstanding choice for what the Cardinal could hire. However, and not the fault of Taylor, their roster is in bad shape. Yikes.
Unlike the rest of Power 5 football, Stanford is limited in its ability to admit transfer portal athletes. Stanford was able to grab only four players in the portal, including two from the Ivy League. The roster is full of holes after the NFL Draft plus the players who left via the portal.
There are options at quarterback, but none are fantastic. Stanford has an above-average tight end, but returns 37 receptions at wide receiver and a bunch of average at best running backs. On defense there’s hope a scheme change and some maturity can make this squad better than last season.
Stanford’s schedule is always tough, with Notre Dame being one of its nonconference games. The Cardinal will not be a favorite in any conference game this season. Stanford starts nonconference play with a game at Hawaii and a home contest against Taylor’s old Hornets squad — those are likely wins.
But that is where the winning stops. They have to travel to USC, Colorado, Washington State and Oregon State. They host Oregon, UCLA, Washington and Cal. The conference has seen a team finish with two wins or fewer wins in four of the past five full seasons. Stanford will be that team this season.
Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter at @GeoffSchwartz.
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