India, Australia, Sri Lanka and South Africa in tussle to make World Test Championship final

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India, Australia, Sri Lanka and South Africa in tussle to make World Test Championship final

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October 2, 2024

India, Australia, Sri Lanka and South Africa in tussle to make World Test Championship final

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With 10 series (26 Tests) to go in the current World Test Championship cycle, the race for the top two spots is getting more intense. Here is a look at how the teams are placed, and what their chances of qualifying are.

Sri Lanka
Percentage points: 55.56, series remaining: SA (two away Tests), Aus (two at home)

With a full 24 points gained from their last two Tests, Sri Lanka have made a strong push towards a top-two finish in this WTC cycle. Their four remaining Tests are against two opponents who are also contenders for the final. If they win each of those matches and take home 48 more points (keep in mind over-rate deductions are always a threat), they will finish on 69.23% and assure themselves of a place in the final regardless of other results. If they lose one and win three they will end up at 61.54, which will still leave them with a chance of qualifying, depending on other results.

India
Percentage points: 74.24, series remaining: NZ (three home), Aus (five away)

Their stunning win in Kanpur has further strengthened India’s position at the top of the table. Wins in each of their remaining eight Tests will take them to 85.09%, but the more realistic aim for them will be to make sure that they get enough points to seal their place in the WTC final regardless of other results. For that, they need at least four wins and two draws (56 points), which will take them to 67.54. South Africa can get up to 69.44 if they win each of their remaining six Tests, but Australia can only reach 64.04 with four wins and two draws (assuming they lose one to India and draw two, and win the other four Tests).

If India get fewer than 56 points, then there is a possibility of them not being in the top two. For instance, if they win four and draw one (52 points), then it’s possible for Australia and South Africa to overtake them.

Sri Lanka can finish with more than 67% too, but wins for them will be at the expense of points for both Australia and South Africa. That will work in India’s favour as Australia and South Africa could then both finish below India.

Bangladesh
Percentage points: 34.38, series remaining: WI (two away), SA (two home)

The two defeats in India have hurt Bangladesh badly – from 45.83% they have dropped to 34.38. Even if they win each of their four remaining Tests, they will only improve to 56.25. Even that is unlikely to be enough for a place in the top two.

New Zealand
Percentage points: 37.50, series remaining: Ind (three away), Eng (three home)

Though New Zealand can theoretically still finish with a percentage as high as 64.29 if they win all six Tests, recent form suggests they won’t get anywhere close to that number. That’s because three of those Tests are in India – easily the toughest assignment in Test cricket – on the back of a 2-0 drubbing in Sri Lanka. Even if they win four of those six Tests and lose two, they will finish at only 50%.

Australia
Percentage points: 62.50, series remaining: Ind (five home), SL (two away)

Currently in second place at 62.5%, Australia can finish on a maximum of 76.32 if they win each of their remaining seven Tests. The two teams against whom they play their remaining series, India and Sri Lanka, are also strong contenders for the final, so wins against them will doubly help Australia’s cause. Five wins will lift their percentage to 65.79, but India and South Africa can still go past them. Things will be clearer by the time they start the series against India, though, as the visitors would have finished their three home Tests against New Zealand.

South Africa
Percentage points: 38.89, series remaining: SL (two home), Pak (two home), Ban (two away)

If South Africa win each of their six remaining Tests they will finish with 69.44%, which will surely be enough for qualification, as only one out of India or Australia can go past that number. Five wins and a draw will leave them with 63.89, which will still keep them in contention, while five wins and a defeat will lower the percentage marginally to 61.11, which will still give them a chance if other results go their way.

England
Percentage points: 42.19, series remaining: Pak (three away), NZ (three away)

England’s unexpected defeat in the final Test against Sri Lanka means they can no longer breach the 60% mark in this cycle. The maximum they can achieve with wins in their six remaining Tests is 57.95. For them to qualify with that score, they will need several other results to work in their favour.

Pakistan
Percentage points: 19.05, series remaining: Eng (three home), SA (two away), WI (two home)

Pakistan’s shambolic series against Bangladesh – not only did they lose 2-0, they also dropped six points due to slow over rates – means their percentage has dropped from 36.66% at the start of the series to 19.05. From here, the maximum they can achieve is 59.52, if they win each of their seven remaining Tests. Their recent performances don’t suggest that Pakistan will get close to achieving this.

West Indies
Percentage: 18.52, series remaining: Ban (two home), Pak (two away)

West Indies have already played four series and have only scored 20 points out of 108. Even if they win their last four Tests, they can only finish on 43.59%.

S Rajesh is stats editor of ESPNcricinfo. @rajeshstats

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