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Podcast Transcript

For decades, the nation of Ethiopia has dreamed of creating a dam on the Blue Nile River. 

Such a dam would provide an enormous amount of electricity for a country that is one of the lowest electricity consumers in the world. It would be a massive undertaking, but it would also bring a great deal of prestige to the country. 

What was once a dream became a reality in the 21st century, and today, it is producing energy for the country. However, the project has also caused problems with many of its neighbors. 

Learn more about the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, how it was built as well as how it has impacted the country and its neighbors, on this episode of Everything Everywhere Daily.

Before I get into a discussion of the dam itself, I should at least provide an overview of the Nile. 

If you remember back to my previous episode on the Nile, the river is considered to be the longest in the world, just edging out the Amazon

The Nile is very odd compared to most rivers in the world in that it has almost no tributaries for much of its length. From the Nile Delta near Alexandria through Egypt and into Sudan, there are no other rivers that flow into the Nile. 

In Sudan, there are some minor tributaries, but the river doesn’t encounter a major tributary until the city of Khartoum, the capital of Sudan. There the Nile splits into two major branches: The White Nile and the Blue Nile. 

The rivers get their names from the Sudanese of the region. The White Nile has relatively clear water and the Blue Nile has color due to its large amount of sediment. 

The White Nile is longer and begins at Lake Victoria. However, the Blue Nile is the source of 90% of the river’s water and 96% of its sediment. The Blue Nile’s origin lies in the Ethiopian highlands. 

For centuries, no one knew the cause of the Nile’s annual flooding. It turned out that seasonal rains in Ethiopia caused the flooding. The difference in water flow on the Blue Nile between the wet and dry seasons can vary by a factor of fifty.

That is an enormous amount of potential energy. 

Egypt fulfilled their dream of placing a dam on the Nile, building the Aswan High Dam in the 1960s and 1970s. While significantly downstream from Ethiopia, Egypt showed the benefits of a dam across the Nile. 

The idea of a dam on the Blue Nile in Ethiopia dates back to the 1960s when the Aswan High Dam began construction. The United States Bureau of Reclamation conducted a survey on behalf of the Ethiopian government from 1956 to 1964 and established an ideal site for a dam. 

The location, which is the current location of the dam, was 14 kilometers or 9 miles from the border of Sudan. 

Due to political turmoil in Ethiopia over the next several decades, the dam remained just an idea. 

The first setback was the 1974 Ethiopian Revolution. 

Sparked by widespread famine, economic hardship, and dissatisfaction with the autocratic rule of Emperor Haile Selassie, the revolution began with a series of strikes and demonstrations in early 1974, primarily led by students, workers, and disaffected soldiers. 

These protests rapidly escalated into a full-blown revolt, culminating in a coup d’état by the Derg, a committee of military and police officials, in September 1974. They abolished the monarchy, killed the Emperor, and established a Marxist-Leninist government under Mengistu Haile Mariam, which pursued radical land redistribution and nationalization policies.

The coup and assassination of Haile Selassie began a lengthy civil war that devastated the country.

The Ethiopian Civil War was fought between the Derg and various rebel groups, including the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and the Eritrean People’s Liberation Front (EPLF).

In 1977, Somalia invaded Ethiopia in what is known as the Ogaden War. This conflict was primarily driven by Somalia’s desire to annex the Ogaden region, which was predominantly inhabited by ethnic Somalis. The invasion took place against the backdrop of the Ethiopian Revolution, which had left Ethiopia politically and militarily weakened. 

Somalia’s initial success was significant, capturing much of the Ogaden by September 1977. However, the tide turned when the Soviet Union shifted its support from Somalia to the new Marxist government in Ethiopia, providing crucial military assistance to Ethiopia. By March 1978, Ethiopian forces had regained control of the Ogaden region, forcing Somali troops to retreat.

From 1983 to 1985, a horrible famine ravaged much of Ethiopia, largely the result of the civil war. At least a million people died from the famine, which constituted the majority of the 1.4 million deaths during the civil war. 

The civil war, which is probably worthy of its own future episode, eventually concluded with the overthrow of the Derg regime in 1991, leading to the establishment of a federal system and Eritrea’s independence.

That was rather a long-winded way of explaining that Ethiopia was not in any condition to tackle a mega project like the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam at the time. 

It wasn’t until the early 21st century that the idea of a dam was revived. 

The Ethiopian government surveyed the region in 2009 and 2010, and plans for the dam’s construction were submitted in November 2010.

The dam was officially announced March 30, 2011 under the name “Project X,” and it was later renamed the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam to honor Ethiopia’s aspiration for development. 

The day after the announcement, on March 31, the contract was awarded without a competitive bid to the Italian firm Salini Impregilo. Then, the day after that, the foundation stone for the dam was laid. 

Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is a gravity dam, which means it relies on its massive weight to resist the horizontal thrust of the water it holds back. The dam is primarily constructed from roller-compacted concrete (RCC), which allows for a quicker and more economical construction process compared to traditional concrete methods.

The dam has a height of approximately 145 meters or 475 feet and stretches about 1.8 kilometers or 1.1 miles across the Blue Nile.

The reservoir behind the dam can hold up to 74 billion cubic meters of water, making it one of Africa’s largest.

The dam is equipped with two spillways — a service spillway and an emergency spillway — to manage excess water. The service spillway is controlled and allows water to be released in a controlled manner, whereas the emergency spillway is designed to operate during extreme flood events.

There are two main powerhouses situated at the base of the dam. These house a total of 16 turbines — 14 of them are 375 MW Francis turbines and 2 are 375 MW Pelton turbines, which are chosen for their efficiency in high-head applications typical of large dam settings.

The total power output of the dam is expected to be 6.45 gigawatts. This will be enough to provide electricity to half of the people in the country who currently do not have it. It will be giant leap forward in terms of improving the living standards for those in Ethiopia. 

Given the Blue Nile’s unique characteristics, special concessions had to be made. To manage the significant sediment that the Blue Nile carries, the dam is designed with flushing tunnels that help reduce sediment buildup, which can affect dam operation and reservoir capacity over time.

The dam includes features to mitigate environmental impacts, such as fish ladders to aid the migration of local fish species disrupted by the dam’s construction.

As of the time of this recording, the dam is almost done. It is approximately 97% complete. The reservoir has already begun filling up.

One of the remarkable aspects of the dam is that almost all of the funding has come from inside Ethiopia. Money was raised through bonds, private donations, save fo ar $1 billion grant from the Chinese government, which went towards turbines. It has largely stayed within its projected budget. 

So far, I’ve talked about the dam and what it is and what it will do Ethiopia. By all accounts it may very well usher in an Rennisance in Ethiopia.

However, there is an issue which has been hanging over the dam since it was announced: Sudan and Egypt. 

Whenever you do anything to a river, the people who will be the most effected are those who live downstream. If you dump something in a river, it is the people downstream who suffer.  

In the case of a dam, whoever controls the dam can control the flow of water for everyone below the dam. Both Egypt and Sudan are heavily reliant on the Nile for drinking water, agriculture, and transportation. 

If either country should get into a conflict with Ethiopia in the future, Ethiopia would have the ability to shut almost the entire water supply to both countries. 

Even if there is no conflict, in the event of a drought, Ethiopia could keep as much water as they need without letting any flow downstream. 

Both Egypt and Sudan have tried making legal arguments for their case. Egypt refers to colonial-era treaties, which granted it substantial rights to the Nile’s water and a veto over upstream projects. Though these treaties are not recognized by Ethiopia. 

Sudan has some unique concerns that are separate from Egypt. One of the biggest has to do with what what would happen in the event of flooding. 

As I mentioned previously, the Ethiopian highlands can experience extreme rains during the wet season, which is responsible for the annual flooding of the Nile. 

Sudan is concerned that if there was flooding then the dam could potentially burst. As the dam is located so close to the Ethiopian-Sudanese border, Sudan would actually suffer more from such a catestrophic event than Ethiopia would. 

Ethiopia did agree to slow the process of filling up the reservoir behind the dam as to not dramatically affect the flow of water downstream. 

However, as of the time of this recording, there is currently no written agreement between the parties. Egypt and Sudan seek a legally binding mechanism that includes all three countries to manage disputes and ensure fair usage of the Nile waters.

Balancing Ethiopia’s development needs with the water security fears of its downstream neighbors will be one of the biggest challenges going forward.

This makes the dam not only a matter of infrastructure but also a significant geopolitical issue in the region. Negotiations have been ongoing, involving various international mediators, but reaching a consensus that satisfies all parties involved has been challenging.

One of the concerns is that if there is no agreement in place regarding water usage if some conflict should arise in the future, it could turn violent. A military conflict over the dam could have disastrous results.

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is a monumental project that reflects Ethiopia’s ambitious developmental goals. When it is complete, which should be months after this episode is recorded, it will be the most powerful hydroelectric plant on the African continent and one of the most powerful in the world.

No matter how successful the dam is and how much energy it could potentially produce for the people of Ethiopia, the geopolitical questions surrounding the dam will eventually have to be resolved.