South African President Cyril Ramaphosa will lead a delegation of African leaders on a peace mission to Ukraine and Russia this week amid attempts to assuage Western concerns that South Africa is siding with Russia in the conflict despite its proclaimed neutrality – which has Ramaphosa doing a round of diplomatic damage control.

Ramaphosa had a phone call with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping on Friday, June 9 to brief Beijing about the upcoming visit by seven African leaders to Ukraine and Russia to “find a peaceful solution” to the war in Ukraine.

In addition to Ramaphosa, the delegation will include the Republic of Congo’s Denis Sassou Nguesso, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, Senegalese President Macky Sall, Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni, Zambian President Hakainde Hichilema and Azali Assoumani, president of Comoros and current chairperson of the African Union.

These heads of state have, according to official South African statements, “agreed that they would engage with both President [Vladimir] Putin and President [Volodymyr] Zelensky on the elements for a ceasefire and a lasting peace in the region”. Ukraine’s stated position for any peace deal is that all Russian troops must withdraw from all of its territory, including the Crimean peninsula occupied by Russia since 2014.

Zelensky will be the first to receive this delegation in Kyiv on June 16, followed by Putin on June 17 in St Petersburg.

Military drills and meetings

South Africa’s leadership position in the delegation has drawn scrutiny from the US and European nations amid scepticism over its ability to negotiate fairly with Ukraine and Russia.

Exasperation over Pretoria’s ambiguous position on the war mounted over what has been called the “Lady R incident”, referring to a mysterious Russian ship that docked in a military port near Cape Town in December 2022 which the US later alleged was then loaded with a cargo of South African weapons.

Two months later, as the world marked the war’s one-year anniversary, South Africa held joint military exercises with Russia and China. The drills – dubbed “Mosi”, which means “smoke” in Tswana, a local South African language – threw Pretoria’s self-proclaimed neutrality into question.

Then on May 15, South Africa’s army chief Lawrence Mbatha visited Moscow to meet his Russian counterpart, Oleg Salyukov.

A communique issued by the Russian defence ministry said the meeting focused on strengthening “military cooperation and implementing projects aimed at improving the combat readiness of both countries’ armies”.

The communique raised concerns that South Africa was actively taking Russia’s side on the war in Ukraine, despite Pretoria’s declared neutrality.

“South Africa often conducts military exchanges with Russia and other countries. However, it is worth noting that this trip went ahead, even though the United States had officially accused the South African government a few days earlier of supplying arms to Moscow,” said Anurag Mishra from the International Team for the Study of Security (ITSS) in Verona in an interview with FRANCE 24 last month.

Mystery ship at South African naval base

On May 11, Reuben Brigety, the US ambassador to South Africa, said he was prepared to “bet his life” that Pretoria had provided weapons to Moscow.

The weapons were allegedly loaded and shipped on December 8, 2022 aboard the Lady R, a cargo ship belonging to a Russian company that was placed on the US sanctions list shortly after the war in Ukraine began.

The reasons for the Lady R’s passage through the port of Simon’s Town have never been fully clarified. Ramaphosa’s government has long behaved as if it was unaware of the details of this voyage. This position sparked demands for an explanation by South African opposition parties and left Western governments feeling somewhat incredulous. South Africa’s main naval base is in Simon’s Town, and Lady R’s arrival was accompanied by a surge of activity on the ground that was hard to ignore.

After weeks of dithering, the government finally gave assurances that the cargo in question was an old order of Russian munitions destined for South Africa’s special forces. However, the US was not convinced that the Lady R had left with an empty hold and claimed to have proof that the cargo ship had been used to transport military equipment for the Russian army. South Africa denied the accusation.

Pretoria’s choice and its consequences

South Africa’s relationship with Russia dates back to the Soviet era, when the USSR was one of the main supporters of Nelson Mandela‘s African National Congress (ANC).

“This has left its mark, and old ANC leaders such as Cyril Ramaphosa feel that they still owe a certain amount of loyalty to yesterday’s great ally,” said Mishra.

Putin has made sure to do everything he can to strengthen these ties. For instance, South Africa is the only African country south of the Sahel that he has visited (in 2006, 2013 and most recently in 2018). Rosatom, the Russian atomic energy agency, wants to build a nuclear power plant there.

“Russia is also important for South Africa’s food security,” said Mishra, as South Africa imports a large proportion of its wheat from Russia.

Finally, the ANC may have a direct financial interest in maintaining good relations with Moscow. Ramaphosa’s party has been accused of receiving generous donations from a mining company owned by Viktor Vekselberg, a Russian entrepreneur close to Putin.

However, this attitude towards Russia, which is conciliatory to say the least, could also cost South Africa dearly.

“South Africa’s status on the international stage could also suffer,” said Mishra. “The possibility of the country one day obtaining a permanent seat on the UN Security Council [an idea that has been mooted for the past 10 years or so] could become much less likely.”

Pretoria’s position could also have economic consequences. “South Africa’s flirtation with Moscow risks billions of dollars in US exports”, reported the Financial Times.

Earlier this week, a group of US lawmakers sent a letter to US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and other senior officials warning that South Africa’s “deepening military relationship” with Russia could lead to the country losing its benefits under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which offers improved market access to the US for eligible sub-Saharan nations.

The letter also called for the AGOA Forum, slated to be hosted in Johannesburg, to be held in another location. South Africa exported nearly $1 billion in exports to the US in the first three months of this year, making it AGOA’s second-largest beneficiary after Nigeria.

Originally published on France24