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Boston is expected to make NBA history on Monday night against Miami according to analytics and oddsmakers by becoming the first team in 151 tries to come back from a 3-0 deficit to win a best-of-seven series.
Per OddsChecker, the Celtics are a seven-point favorite against the Heat in Game 7. Projections from ESPN (82.8 percent), FiveThirtyEight (72 percent) and The Ringer (68 percent) favor Boston to win at home as well.
The Celtics have been historically good in these circumstances, winning 81.5 percent of the Game 7s they’ve played at home. The Heat have only played two road Game 7s and are still looking for their first win.
If the game comes down to officiating, Boston should be in good hands, too. Longtime NBA officials Tony Brothers and Scott Foster are infamous for how unpopular they are among players but received the call for Game 7. Based on Miami’s regular season record in games officiated by the two, the Heat should be concerned.
All signs off the court point toward a Celtics win and many of the ones on the court do, too. Boston has held Miami to an average of 99.7 points per game during its three-game winning streak. While the Celtics shouldn’t expect to win with another 7-of-35 performance from beyond the arc as they did in Game 6, the offense showed it can get hot at any time when Boston averaged 17 threes per game in Games 4 and 5.
Miami’s own offensive struggles likely means that if Boston gets hot from three in Game 7, things could get out of hand in a hurry. But even if the Celtics struggle from deep, the Heat’s inability to score will likely lead to a competitive game.
Heat stars Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo shot a combined 9-of-37 (24.3 percent) from the field in Game 6 and will need to revert to the form they showed earlier in the series. In the first three games, they combined to average 16.3-of-32.7 (50 percent) on field goal attempts.
Butler, in particular, has shown this postseason he’s capable of willing the Heat to victory. He likely will have to for Miami to avoid a historic collapse. While he certainly can, odds say he won’t.
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