Chinese President Xi Jinping is leaning toward unifying Taiwan in a “peaceful” manner but is also preparing possible military action to achieve the goal, a top US intelligence official said at a hearing on Capitol Hill on Thursday.

Avril Haines, director of US national intelligence, said that judging from the intelligence she had, “I think we continue to assess that he (Xi) would prefer to achieve unification of Taiwan through peaceful means.”

Still, Haines said, Xi has directed the Chinese military to “provide him with a military option, essentially, to be able to take it without concern of our intervention,” which is expected to “have a meaningful impact on his capacity to do so.”

Avril’s comments came after Senator Rick Scott raised concerns about the possibility of China invading Taiwan, citing Xi’s remarks in recent 12 months indicating he was preparing the Chinese population for a war against Taiwan.

Also at the hearing, Scott Berrier, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, appeared more worried about a possible invasion of Taiwan, saying that Xi’s rhetoric has been “picking up” after assuming his third term as Chinese president.

“I think the bottom line is he’s told his military to be ready,” Berrier said.

Berrier said he believed there were a number of dates for a possible military action China will take against Taiwan, including 2025, 2027, 2035 and 2049.

Asked about the impact a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would have on the US economy, Haines said she could not provide a precise answer since it would depend on what exactly will happen.

She expressed concerns, however, over the possible interruption of semiconductor supplies from Taiwan because more than 90 percent of high-end chips are produced in Taiwan and almost every electronics product needs chips to power them.

Haines said it would be a serious blow if the production of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC), the world’s largest contract chipmaker, was cut off by China’s military actions.

“It would have an enormous global financial impact that I think runs somewhere between $600 billion to over $1 trillion on an annual basis for the first several years on the global financial economy,” she said.

Haines’ assessment echoed US State Secretary Antony Blinken, who said in an interview with CBS’s 60 Minutes in September 2022 that if Taiwan was attacked by China, the global economy would be devastated as most high-end semiconductors in the world are produced there.

To deal with that risk, TSMC is investing $40 million to build two sophisticated wafer fabs in Arizona at Washington’s urging.

A fab using the 4 nanometer process is scheduled to begin mass production in 2024, and the other using the more advanced 3nm process is slated to mass produce chips starting in 2026.

Meanwhile, Haines said the relationship between the US and China has become “more challenging,” citing a speech made by Xi in March in which he blamed Washington for suppressing Beijing, reflecting his distrust of the US and his belief that Washington is seeking to contain his country.

In his March 6 speech, Xi accused the US of trying to isolate his country and hold back its development, and a US-led campaign of “containment and suppression” of China has “brought unprecedented, severe challenges.”

Despite Xi’s strong rhetoric, Haines said her agency continued to believe based on the intelligence gathered that China wanted to preserve stability in a bid to avoid triggering additional technology restrictions or sanctions from the US

https://focustaiwan.tw/cross-strait/202305050005

Category: Taiwan