After a break of almost three weeks, the Southwest Monsoon is expected to revive from July 8, M Rajeevan, Secretary of the Ministry of Earth Sciences said on Sunday.

Rajeevan, who has been researching the Southwest Monsoon for more than three decades, noted that forecast models show signs of revival, increasing rains in the South, West Coast and East Central India from July 8.

He added that models also indicate the formation of a weather system in the Bay of Bengal by July 12.

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“Monsoon Update: @moesgoi models show signs of revival- increasing rains in South, west coast & East Central India from 8 Jul. Models also make an early indication of formation of a weather system over BoB by12th & subsequent active monsoon phase,” Rajeevan tweeted.

After a good spell of rain in the first two and half weeks of June, the Southwest Monsoon had not advanced further since June 19.

The monsoon is yet to arrive in Delhi, Haryana, parts of west Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and West Rajasthan.

For more than a week, the monsoon rainfall remained absent from most parts of the country except the foot hills of Himalaya.

In its forecast for July, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) said the country as a whole will witness good rainfall this month.

However, parts of north India, some parts of the south peninsula, central, east and northeast India could witness rainfall in the category of normal to below normal.

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The weather department added that the conditions are not favourable for the monsoon’s progress till July 7 due to the lack of a weather system.

Stating that the northern limit of southwest monsoon (NLM) is currently passing through Aligarh, Meerut, Ambala and Amritsar, the IMD said “Prevailing meteorological conditions, large scale atmospheric features and the forecast wind pattern by dynamical models suggest that no favourable conditions are likely to develop for further advance of southwest monsoon into remaining parts of Rajasthan, west Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi and Punjab during next 4-5 days.”

Hence, subdued rainfall activity is very likely to continue to prevail over the northwest, central and western parts of peninsular India during the next 4-5 days, it added.

(With inputs from PTI)

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