TOI looked at each of these possibilities to calculate the chances of individual teams making it to the playoffs. As of Saturday morning, May 14, MI and CSK are the two teams which can’t qualify for the playoffs.
With Friday’s win, PBKS have significantly improved their probability of entering the playoffs. Among all the remaining teams vying for a top 4 berth, KKR have the bleakest possibility to qualify for the next round. So far GT is the only team that has officially qualified for the playoffs. Here is what all the possibilities look like right now:
1) MI is out of the reckoning for a playoff spot
2) CSK joined MI as the second team to be eliminated
3) KKR’s chances of making the fourth spot have slightly improved to 9.4%. The best it can hope for is a tied third spot with four to six teams or a tied fourth position with three to five contending teams
4) DC’s chances of making it to the top four slots have improved to 46.9% but at best it can hope for a joint second spot which it will share with three to five teams
5) PBKS’ chances of a top-four finish have also improved to 46.9%, but like DC it can also no longer top the points table
6) SRH’s chances of finishing in the top four spots have also improved to 28.1% though they too cannot finish at the top after the league stage
7) RCB’s chances of making it to one of the top four slots have reduced to 77.3%. After Friday’s loss, they also can no longer top the points table. At best they can be second – a spot that they could share with three to five teams
8) RR has a 92.2% chance of finishing among the top four in terms of points. But they can still drop to as low as sixth if they lose their remaining games
9) LSG in its first IPL season is now certain to get to the top three slots on points but that doesn’t ensure qualification as it can be joint first with three teams, joint second with up to five teams or joint third with up to four teams
10) GT, also in its first IPL season, has ensured qualification and can do no worse than a three-way tie for the top spot in which they finish third on net run rate
11) In short, bet on GT, LSG, RR and RCB making it to the playoffs with PBKS and DC having a relatively small, but still realistic chance of displacing RR or RCB from the playoffs race. Anything else would be a long shot.
How we calculate these probabilities:
We looked at all 1,024 current possible combinations of results with 10 matches remaining. We assumed that for any given match the chances of either side winning are even. We then look at how many of the combinations put each team in one of the top four slots by points. That gives us our probability number. To take a specific example, of the 1,024 possible result combinations currently, RR finishes first to fourth on points in 944 combinations. That translates to a 92.2% chance. We do not take net run rates or “no results” into consideration because predicting those in advance is impossible.
Come back for our updated predictions Sunday (May 15) morning, which will take into account the result of Saturday’s match.