Saturday, July 13, 2024

Bengals vs. Jaguars odds, prediction, betting trends for NFL ‘Thursday Night Football’

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When the Bengals host the Jaguars in Cincinnati for “Thursday Night Football” (8:20 p.m. ET, NFL Network), they will look to improve to 3-1 while the visitors are still looking for the first win of the season.

While Cincinnati is surprising with Zac Taylor, 0-3 Jacksonville has looked dysfunctional overall with “rookie” coach Urban Meyer. This game should inspire Jaguars rookie No. 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence, however, as he duels 2020 No. 1 overall pick Joe Burrow. The last time they shared the field, Burrow’s LSU Tigers beat Lawerence’s Clemson Tigers for a college national championship.

Here’s everything to know about betting on Bengals vs. Jaguars in Week 4, including updated odds, trends and our expert’s prediction for “Thursday Night Football.”

WEEK 4 NFL PICKS: Against the spread | Straight up

Bengals vs. Jaguars odds for ‘Thursday Night Football’

  • Spread: Bengals by 7.5
  • Over/under: 45
  • Moneyine: Jaguars +310, Bengals -390

(betting odds per FanDuel Sportsbook)

The line has stayed steady around a touchdown all week given the short week and Cincinnati trending up with the win at Pittsburgh and Jacksonville being dragged further down by a bad loss to Arizona at home.

Bengals vs. Jaguars all-time series

The feline-nicknamed AFC teams and former AFC Central division rivals have played only 23 times. The Jaguars hold a 13-0 advantage. The Bengals won the meeting last Oct. 4, but the Jaguars had won the previous two meetings. Overall, Cincinnati has taken five of the past seven matchups going back to 2006.

Three trends to know

—85 percent of spread bettors think the number is too high and the Jaguars will cover.

—71 percent of over/under bettors think the total is too low based on two dangerous passing games and two shaky overall defenses.

—The Bengals are 5-5 against the spread and 4-6 straight up in their past 10, with only 3 games going over. The Jaguars are 0-10 SU and 3-7 ATS in their past 10 with only 4 games going over.

Three things to watch

The Joe and Joe Show

Burrow and Bengals running Joe Mixon have given their team a balanced, explosive attack, the best ever in the Taylor era. The Jaguars struggle everywhere on defense so they should have complementary big nights.

Will the Jaguars run Robinson again?

Jacksonville finally rolled out a run-heavy approach of feeding second-year undrafted star James Robinson often last week against a weak Cardinals run defense. The Bengals had a few issues with the scrimmage presence of the Steelers’ Najee Harris last week. Robinson needs to run well to give his team a chance.

How about the other Robinson vs. Trey Hendrickson?

Jaguars left tackle Cam Robinson comes in nursing a shoulder injury before taking on Hendrickson, the Bengals’ high-priced defensive end addition (formerly of the Saints) who has 2.5 sacks in 3 games are posing 13.5 in New Orleans last season. Lawrence has been sacked only five games in three games, but a trio came from the Cardinals last week. He needs to be protected and the run will help there.

Stat that matters

20.0. That’s how many yards per catch Bengals first-round rookie Ja’Marr Chase is averaging over three games, the first of his career. He’s caught 11 of 16 targets for 220 yards and 4 TDs. Eight of his catches have gone for first downs. He’s living up to being a big-play threat and the Jaguars have no one to cover him downfield when Burrow airs it out.

Bengals vs. Jaguars prediction

Burrow has great matchups for his healthy wide receivers and Mixon will help plenty. But Lawrence can counter well against a Bengals’ secondary that’s having issues and Robinson will help him settle a little more. The Bengals will take solid control of this game with a few big pass plays, with Lawrence tightening things up just enough in garbage time for the Jaguars’ first cover of the season.

Bengals 27, Jaguars 20

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