Saturday, June 15, 2024

IPL 2021: All playoff possibilities for the 8 teams in 10 points | Cricket News

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39 of the 56 league stage matches of IPL 2021 have now been completed. Only two of the eight teams are now assured qualification and as things stand CSK and DC should take the top two slots after the league stage, their final ranking dependent on which team wins more (both teams have 4 matches left to play).
But mathematically, even a team like Sunrisers Hyderabad is still in the race for the four play-off berths, though their chances of qualifying are just over 1%. For all practical purposes we could see four teams fight it out for one spot in the top four in the days to come.
Shankar Raghuraman of TOI has done the calculations to show the probabilities of each team qualifying after Sunday’s games, assuming that in any given match the chances of winning or losing are 50-50, admittedly a big assumption given the form of some teams.
The analysis also ignores net run rates, since, with four to five games left for each team, current NRRs are more than likely to change significantly.
Here are all the playoff possibilities for all 8 teams as things stand now, with 17 league stage matches left to play:
1) CSK, who are at the top of the table at the moment, are assured of qualifying and have a 96.7% chance of finishing in the top two slots
2) DC, who are tied with CSK on points but are below them on net run rate, are also assured of qualification and have a 95% chance of finishing in the top two
3) RCB, currently in third spot with 12 points, have a 94.9% chance of finishing in the top four either singly or jointly but only a 26% chance of ending up in one of the top two slots
4) Barring these three teams, no other team has a better than even chance of making it to the playoffs
5) KKR, currently the fourth placed team, has a 36% chance of making it to one of the top four slots either singly or jointly. It can finish no better than second and its chances of doing that are a mere 0.7%
6) PK, like KKR, have a 36% chance of making the playoffs and cannot top the table. Its chances of finishing in second spot are just 0.9%
7) RR are at the moment in sixth place, but at the same points as KKR and PK with one extra game in hand, their chances of making the playoffs are better than even at 55%. They can even top the table and have a 4% chance of finishing in the top two slots
8) MI are level on points and games with KKR and PK and also have a 36% chance of qualifying and no chance of topping. Like those two teams their chance of finishing in the top two is less than 1% at 0.7%
9) SRH are still not out of it mathematically and Sunday’s results have actually increased their chances of finishing in the top four, singly or jointly, to 1.1%. But they can’t do better than third spot and their chance of doing that is a mere 0.05% or one in 2,000. If SRH lose to RR today, then they will be well and truly out of the race for the playoffs.
10) For all practical purposes, CSK, DC and RCB are assured qualification (95% chance of all three making it) and what’s up for grabs now is one of the top four slots
What were the playoff possibilities at the end of September 25? Find outHERE.

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